Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x4251…54ad other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%84W / 20L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$5
crypto 41% +$10
sports 4% $0
world 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 3 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.6%
all 104 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.5 per $1 lost it wins $18.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses84 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage500d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 10 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 29? Jan 30 $1,940 +$2 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 28? Jan 29 $1,913 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $1,913 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? Jan 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 28 $2,012 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Dec 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Oct 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 13? Oct 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 12? Oct 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? Sep 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Aug 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 55d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $76 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 95¢ $73 90d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 90d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 108d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $20 119d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $20 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $20 119d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $33 119d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 147d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $35 148d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $52 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,940 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,913 149d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $1,913 150d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $1,913 150d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? SELL Up 61¢ $13 150d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? SELL Up 61¢ $1 150d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? SELL Up 61¢ $15 150d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? BUY Up 57¢ $28 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.88 · official $76.88 (match) · 216 history records