Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x424e…a606 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-39%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$85
crypto 11% −$8
sports 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -28.2% -35.0% 41% 33% -43.8%
≤30d 27 -28.2% -35.0% 41% 33% -43.8%
≤90d 27 -28.2% -35.0% 41% 33% -43.8%
all 27 -28.2% -35.0% 41% 33% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 33% -43.8%
10% -41.2% 30% -49.2%
15% -46.9% 22% -54.1%
20% -52.1% 19% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +186%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +139%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$12 -40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records