Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x424d…8198 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$29
crypto 33% +$14
world 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage86d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,000 +$8 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $84 +$1 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 27 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,011 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $43 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $42 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $42 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $42 21d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records