Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4247…91c4
sports · 899 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35,994 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,361 · open −$27,083
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 231 History 769 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,741
7 days−$5,677
14 days−$7,254
30 days−$8,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,946 $13,342 +$397 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2,901 $3,538 +$637 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,617 $3,389 −$228 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,895 $2,888 −$6 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 36¢ $24,626 $2,364 −$22,262 (-90%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,842 $1,868 +$26 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $4,850 $1,288 −$3,562 (-73%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $902 $957 +$54 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $781 $790 +$10 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $823 $778 −$46 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $653 $673 +$20 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $509 $515 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $460 $462 +$2 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $451 $457 +$6 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 52¢ 81¢ $235 $364 +$129 (+55%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $175 $338 +$163 (+94%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $277 $304 +$27 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $229 $284 +$56 (+24%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 37¢ 19¢ $425 $215 −$210 (-49%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $257 $212 −$45 (-17%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 57¢ 49¢ $234 $201 −$34 (-14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $181 $179 −$2 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $177 +$38 (+27%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 68¢ $178 $170 −$9 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $168 $165 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on April Jun 12 $0 +$11 +6488%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 12 $0 $0 +203%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 12 $0 +$21 +11316%
FC Nantes leading at halftime? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +5284%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -65922%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoff Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1195%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1031%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1868%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +11207%
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1860%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$49 +319162%
Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $778 +$84 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $722 −$44 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $19 −$6 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,041 +$107 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 +$16 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $19 −$7 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $456 −$37 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$15 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +473%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$17 +84%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $13 −$10 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% −$3,922
world 36% +$632
other 14% −$24,939
sports 9% −$5,865
economics 4% −$29
crypto 1% −$1,270
weather 0% −$43
finance 0% −$66
tech 0% −$23
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 50m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 54m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $15 4h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 5h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 5h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $111 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY No $2 5h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 5h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 +13.8% +2.9% 21% 16% -12.7%
≤30d 769 +5.0% -5.0% 23% 17% -12.7%
≤90d 769 +5.0% -5.0% 23% 17% -12.7%
all 769 +5.0% -5.0% 23% 17% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover192.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 17% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 15% -21.0%
15% -22.4% 13% -28.7%
20% -30.0% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,879.66 · official $40,877.10 (match) · 3500 history records