Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4245…a467 weather 765 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$492 (+4%) realized +$515 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%295W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$150
14 days+$247
30 days−$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$434
crypto 4% −$5
other 1% −$63
sports 0% −$6
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -25.8% -32.9% 29% 29% -17.3%
≤30d 354 -21.9% -29.4% 29% 29% -17.9%
≤90d 662 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 32% -6.1%
all 750 -7.6% -16.4% 39% 29% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 29% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 28% -15.1%
15% -31.7% 27% -23.3%
20% -38.4% 25% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$515
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses295 / 455
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)750 / 765
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 750 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $26 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $24 $14 −$10 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $16 $13 −$4 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$53 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$45 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 −$47 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -15%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$37 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$42 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$26 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$46 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$25 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$45 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$67 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$47 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 −$35 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$29 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$49 +455%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$31 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$38 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 18h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 51¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.91 · official $206.16 (match) · 3462 history records