Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4243…47a8 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$113 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%49W / 81L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$274
crypto 10% −$276
world 4% +$790
politics 2% −$64
sports 1% −$57
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.4% +44.2% 100% 100% +44.2%
≤30d 1 +59.4% +44.2% 100% 100% +44.2%
≤90d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 33% 33% -47.1%
all 130 -14.4% -22.6% 38% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 20% -8.4%
10% -30.0% 15% -17.2%
15% -36.8% 11% -25.2%
20% -43.0% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses49 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage139d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $35 +$21 +59%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $16 +$39 +235%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 13 $1 +$1 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 28 $668 −$330 -50%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $173 −$77 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $187 −$27 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $239 −$35 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $17 −$4 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $100 −$49 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $110 −$30 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $102 −$89 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $2,383 +$84 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $575 +$58 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $111 −$6 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 05 $283 −$171 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 04 $81 −$52 -64%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $166 +$879 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 04 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 04 $44 +$7 +16%
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video? Mar 04 $57 −$14 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $8 +$6 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $20 −$9 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 04 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 03 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $15 −$11 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 02 $31 +$2 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 02 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $28 +$6 +21%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 01 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $19 −$5 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 01 $132 −$46 -35%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $22 +$5 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $108 −$15 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $53 +$16 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-2 BUY 1¢ $1 47h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $1 47h
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $48 38d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 38d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 38d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 38d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this SELL Yes 3¢ $9 38d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 39d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 39d
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 39d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 39d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 39d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39d
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $2 39d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? BUY Yes 4¢ $74 106d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $74 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.80 · official $54.80 (match) · 543 history records