Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4242…3a14 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
other 22% +$1
politics 20% +$1
sports 4% +$3
tech 2% −$13
crypto 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 20 -0.4% -9.8% 25% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 3% -10.1%
all 53 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage492d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $48 −$5 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $128 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $40 −$13 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $58 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $272 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $272 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $272 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 24 $9 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 29 $9 $0 +6%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Northwest Territories seat in the Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $15 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $14 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $42 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.88 · official $42.75 (match) · 161 history records