Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x4240…899d world 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+39%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$10
other 16% +$2
sports 13% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.3% -53.2% 50% 0% -59.2%
≤30d 8 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 25% +17.4%
≤90d 11 +31.6% +19.0% 73% 36% +26.4%
all 11 +31.6% +19.0% 73% 36% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 36% +26.4%
10% +7.6% 36% +14.3%
15% -2.8% 36% +3.2%
20% -12.3% 36% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage44d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$13 +170%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $2 +$6 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records