Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x4240…2f35 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%21W / 58L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$12
other 16% +$19
politics 12% −$5
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$62
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -17.7%
≤30d 19 -5.3% -14.3% 11% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 63 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 16% -8.6%
all 79 +2.1% -7.7% 27% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 15% -9.2%
10% -16.5% 15% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 13% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage594d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +1%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $163 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $333 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $158 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $166 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 +$10 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $11 +$8 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $10 28h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 29h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.59 · official $99.59 (match) · 285 history records