Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x423e…06f9 politics 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,311 (-1%) realized −$2,319 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$91
other 37% −$53
sports 15% −$2,189
culture 4% −$9
economics 2% −$5
world 2% −$4
tech 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 +2.5% -7.3% 9% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 91 -13.7% -21.9% 5% 3% -11.5%
all 156 -3.3% -12.5% 23% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 8% -10.6%
10% -20.9% 8% -19.2%
15% -28.5% 8% -27.0%
20% -35.5% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,686) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$2,319
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $408 $417 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,953 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $231 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,081 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,601 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,216 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,242 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $79 +$49 +62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $59 +$76 +129%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,705 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $621 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,191 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,011 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $703 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $7,194 −$7 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,683 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,219 −$6 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,533 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,334 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $2,271 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $305 3h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $340 24h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 25h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $279 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $279 29h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $231 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $994 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $995 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $879 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $880 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $839 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $861 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $629 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $630 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $827 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $829 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $901 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $409 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,269 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,271 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.76 · official $416.76 (match) · 508 history records