Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x423a…950c sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$85 (-26%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$90
other 43% +$10
crypto 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +31.0% +18.5% 46% 43% +4.2%
≤30d 28 +31.0% +18.5% 46% 43% +4.2%
≤90d 28 +31.0% +18.5% 46% 43% +4.2%
all 29 +26.5% +14.4% 45% 41% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 41% -52.2%
10% +3.5% 41% -56.8%
15% -6.5% 41% -60.9%
20% -15.7% 38% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions34
Markets (closed)29 / 63
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 37¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +414%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 20¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 38h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 38h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 38h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $2 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.02 · official $136.03 (match) · 88 history records