Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4238…1d48
crypto · 10 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$1 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$1
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 89% 56% -2.0%
≤30d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 89% 56% -2.0%
≤90d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 89% 56% -2.0%
all 9 +13.1% +2.3% 89% 56% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 56% -2.0%
10% -7.5% 22% -11.3%
15% -16.4% 11% -19.9%
20% -24.6% 11% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 25 history records