Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4238…3fbc crypto 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,523 (+14%) realized +$1,574 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%164W / 140L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day95.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$252
14 days+$1,401
30 days+$1,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$1,288
sports 13% +$159
other 6% −$155
weather 2% +$53
economics 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 45% +0.8%
≤30d 304 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 43% +2.9%
≤90d 304 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 43% +2.9%
all 304 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 43% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 32% -7.0%
15% -31.0% 22% -15.9%
20% -37.8% 12% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$1,574
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses164 / 140
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)304 / 308
History coverage16d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day95.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 65¢ 72¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 76¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$13 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$13 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$13 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$12 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$5 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$5 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$6 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$3 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$6 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$5 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$7 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$5 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$12 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$5 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $27 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $34 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $34 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.92 · official $63.12 · 1690 history records