Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4237…7519
other · 63 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses53 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)54 / 63
History coverage261d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 9 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14? May 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? May 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? May 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 13 $81 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Mar 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026? Jan 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 22? Jan 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 22 $77 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 07 $80 −$7 -9%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moment Pro Camera II be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Dec 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on November 27? Dec 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will CapCut - Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in November 2025? Nov 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Oct 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 19 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$4
crypto 31% +$1
world 5% $0
sports 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $82 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $81 13d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 17d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 20d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 28d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 31d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma BUY No 99¢ $1 40d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 51d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 58d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $1 58d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 62d
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 68d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 74d
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $1 74d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $1 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.13 · official $63.13 (match) · 117 history records