Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x4231…402c sports 579 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,658 (+5%) realized +$1,675 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%520W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days+$21
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$409
sports 28% +$121
politics 12% +$989
other 11% +$106
tech 10% +$50
world 2% +$26
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 18% -7.4%
≤30d 76 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 5% -7.6%
≤90d 245 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 3% -7.9%
all 538 +1.3% -8.4% 97% 7% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 7% -5.0%
10% -17.2% 4% -14.1%
15% -25.2% 1% -22.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.79 per $1 lost it wins $12.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$1,672
Realized+$1,675
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses520 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)538 / 579
History coverage606d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $268 $271 +$3 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $144 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of June? No 98¢ 94¢ $82 $79 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $76 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $74 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of June? No 99¢ 74¢ $89 $66 −$23 (-26%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 95¢ 99¢ $37 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 93¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $8 +$2 +33%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $245? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $100? Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $60? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $50? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $110? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $140? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $40? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $130? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $120? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $70? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th Jun 06 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of Jun 06 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $20 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 03 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $6 $0 +7%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $102 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $142 in May? May 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in May? May 30 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $110? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of May 25 202 May 30 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 in May? May 30 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 30 $30 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in May? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $8 28h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$440 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $212 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of BUY No 97¢ $69 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of BUY No 98¢ $74 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $73 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $74 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 82¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,672.28 · official $1,672.28 (match) · 1949 history records