Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x4231…1bfe other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$134 (+12%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$66
14 days+$108
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$145
sports 2% +$20
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +80.5% +63.3% 60% 60% +68.2%
≤30d 9 +113.0% +92.7% 56% 56% +73.9%
≤90d 11 +89.4% +71.4% 55% 55% +67.7%
all 31 +23.3% +11.6% 42% 32% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 32% +3.6%
10% +0.9% 26% -6.3%
15% -8.9% 23% -15.4%
20% -17.8% 19% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage196d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$27 +138%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$13 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$28 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$47 +710%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 +$16 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $5 +$3 +67%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $4 +$9 +200%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 11 $92 +$1 +1%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $309 +$22 +7%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $269 +$47 +18%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $3 $0 -9%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $6 −$1 -10%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $29 −$5 -18%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 06 $10 −$2 -24%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $8 $0 -6%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 05 $14 −$4 -31%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $42 −$10 -24%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 03 $8 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $107 −$4 -4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $36 +$9 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 25d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 78d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $5 88d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $11 92d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 23¢ $10 92d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 99d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 99d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 99d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 99d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 99d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records