Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x422e…4ae9 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-11%) realized −$115 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$17
14 days−$62
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$36
other 29% −$143
politics 3% −$3
weather 1% −$11
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -23.0% -30.3% 27% 24% -19.9%
≤30d 39 -22.4% -29.8% 28% 26% -30.9%
≤90d 48 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 33% -14.4%
all 57 -16.5% -24.5% 35% 33% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 33% -22.2%
10% -31.7% 25% -29.6%
15% -38.3% 25% -36.4%
20% -44.3% 18% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)57 / 74
History coverage237d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +276%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +139%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +442%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$19 +126%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $64 −$29 -45%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $51 −$15 -30%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $84 +$14 +17%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $15 +$14 +91%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $15 +$18 +120%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $44 +$8 +18%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $31 +$13 +42%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $23 +$9 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Dec 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 39¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 38¢ $5 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 20h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 13¢ $5 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $31 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 10¢ $2 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 3¢ $2 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 6¢ $2 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $10 31h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $10 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $43.98 · 142 history records