Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x422a…dc4b other 399 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%171W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$66
14 days+$58
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$201
crypto 15% −$109
weather 11% −$35
sports 10% +$10
tech 1% −$80
politics 1% −$73
world 1% +$4
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +26.8% +14.7% 54% 54% -2.7%
≤30d 164 +7.8% -2.4% 49% 49% -7.3%
≤90d 181 +8.5% -1.8% 48% 47% -5.9%
all 391 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 39% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 39% -10.8%
10% -17.5% 34% -19.4%
15% -25.5% 31% -27.2%
20% -32.8% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses171 / 220
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)391 / 399
History coverage206d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? No 85¢ 88¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $17 +$13 +73%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $31 +$29 +93%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$14 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $34 +$26 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$15 +97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1 +$15 +1141%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $10 +$10 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $38 +$14 +37%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $6 +$24 +414%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 +$8 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $17 +$8 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $12 +$13 +105%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $3 +$7 +197%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 +$15 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$15 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$9 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$17 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$13 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$12 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $17 4h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 15h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $35 16h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $34 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $31 16h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $17 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 17h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $16 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 17h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $4 41h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 41h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $15 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $9 41h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $4 41h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $34 41h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $25 41h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $25 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 41h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY 16¢ $3 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $11 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $10 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.90 · official $45.90 (match) · 1283 history records