Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4229…c131 weather 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,741 (-13%) realized −$2,745 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%106W / 124L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,527
weather 23% −$323
world 13% −$17
politics 7% −$906
sports 4% −$224
economics 1% +$39
crypto 1% +$8
finance 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 0% -1.3%
≤30d 4 +19.5% +8.1% 75% 25% +9.8%
≤90d 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 25% -13.0%
all 230 -25.0% -32.1% 46% 28% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 28% -22.2%
10% -38.6% 12% -29.7%
15% -44.6% 6% -36.5%
20% -50.0% 5% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$2,745
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses106 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)230 / 235
History coverage185d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $56 $64 +$8 (+14%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Tabi FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 86¢ 84¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $13 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $13 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 27 $39 +$4 +10%
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 14 $16 +$12 +75%
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" this week on Truth Social? Apr 16 $69 +$19 +28%
Will Trump post "AG" or "Attorney General" this week on Truth Social? Apr 13 $100 −$43 -43%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 31? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 24 $98 +$15 +15%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on Fe Mar 01 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 9? Mar 01 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 8? Feb 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 8? Feb 08 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 7? Feb 08 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Fe Feb 08 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 7 Feb 08 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 7? Feb 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 60°F or higher on February Feb 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on Fe Feb 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on Fe Feb 07 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 6 Feb 06 $55 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 6? Feb 06 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe Feb 06 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February Feb 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on Feb Feb 06 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on Feb Feb 06 $43 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 5? Feb 05 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on February Feb 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 54°F or higher on February 4 Feb 04 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 3? Feb 03 $134 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 1? Feb 01 $133 +$21 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February Feb 01 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 1? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 1? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on February Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -12°C on January 31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on Jan Jan 31 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 30-31°F on January Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on January 31? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on January 30 Jan 30 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 28-29°F on January Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 31? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 30? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 30? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on January Jan 29 $40 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 30? Jan 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on January 30? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $56 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $14 4h
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $43 24h
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $23 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.30 · official $108.30 (match) · 1442 history records