Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x4229…dbaf weather 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$533 (+3%) realized +$537 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate91%270W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$59
14 days+$413
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$41
sports 18% +$146
crypto 17% +$39
tech 15% +$287
other 7% +$7
weather 4% +$7
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.7% -3.5% 89% 32% -9.0%
≤30d 37 +7.4% -2.8% 89% 32% -7.2%
≤90d 56 +9.6% -0.9% 91% 38% -7.1%
all 296 +2.7% -7.1% 91% 24% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 24% -7.0%
10% -16.0% 9% -15.9%
15% -24.1% 6% -24.0%
20% -31.5% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.36 per $1 lost it wins $5.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$537
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses270 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)296 / 302
History coverage232d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) Curaçao 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Curaçao 91¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Curaçao 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,003 +$8 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $15 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$2 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $24 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,650 +$3 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 +$5 +41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 +27%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,073 +$18 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3,071 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +151%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $102 +$4 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $761 +$30 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,003 +$72 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,006 +$184 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 10 $2,522 +$54 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $52 −$6 -11%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 10 $198 +$13 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $3 $0 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +23%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +13%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +10%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +15%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 31 $35 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 78¢ $5 33m
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 78¢ $3 34m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 91¢ $50 35m
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 96¢ $100 35m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $3 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 57m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,004 57m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $48 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,500 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,000 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 93¢ $15 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 88¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $15 2h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 98¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 81¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.54 · official $163.07 (match) · 718 history records