Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4223…957a politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$7
politics 38% −$4
tech 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,073) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,227
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage86d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,167 $1,166 −$1 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 18 $190 −$1 -1%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 18 $3 $0 -13%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Apr 17 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $13 $0 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 29m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 37m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 46m
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $17 56m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $836 1h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $257 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,151 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $790 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $282 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $34 2d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 2d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,215 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,182 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $881 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.73 · official $1,226.73 (match) · 71 history records