Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
42 0x421e…1e47 sports 214 markets active 6d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,781 (-4%) realized −$2,781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%97W / 117L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$868est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$873
14 days−$13,518
30 days−$9,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$6,233
crypto 29% +$2,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -46.1% -51.2% 20% 20% -65.6%
≤30d 104 -35.4% -41.5% 33% 32% -44.0%
≤90d 214 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 43% -15.2%
all 214 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 43% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -15.2%
10% -23.9% 38% -23.3%
15% -31.3% 33% -30.7%
20% -38.0% 30% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$264 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses97 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$868
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage71d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $117 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $536 −$525 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $199 +$337 +170%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $303 −$297 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$102 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $92 +$68 +74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $110 +$179 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$40 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$28 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $142 −$139 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $214 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $292 +$63 +22%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 +$195 +191%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $112 −$110 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $81 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $199 −$158 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $192 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $121 +$72 +59%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $214 +$221 +104%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $183 −$180 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $91 +$92 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $98 −$7 -7%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $259 −$55 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $157 −$157 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $255 −$255 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 04 $231 −$231 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $117 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $536 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $536 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $199 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 13¢ $72 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $508 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 32¢ $303 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $206 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $160 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $92 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $289 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 37¢ $110 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $108 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $67 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $42 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 47¢ $203 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 40¢ $142 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 43¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 28¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 42¢ $163 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $158 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 99¢ $354 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 81¢ $292 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records