Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x421b…02a7 other 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 24% −$19
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$9
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage135d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $666 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $662 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $325 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $450 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $354 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $799 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $436 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $139 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $295 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 10m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 26m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 7h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 12h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 20h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 23h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 35h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 36h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 38h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 39h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 40h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 47h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.78 · official $59.78 (match) · 1404 history records