Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4218…2996
other · 9 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$8 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage24d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$11 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$14
sports 12% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 21h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 30h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.1% +6.0% 50% 50% -3.5%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 43% -21.9%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 43% -21.9%
all 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 43% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 43% -21.9%
10% -17.9% 43% -29.4%
15% -25.8% 43% -36.2%
20% -33.1% 29% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.06 · official $16.06 (match) · 12 history records