Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x4216…48d8 politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1020d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$328 (-15%) realized −$167 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$294
other 23% −$161
world 7% +$75
crypto 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 50% -26.4%
10% -30.2% 38% -33.5%
15% -36.9% 38% -39.9%
20% -43.1% 25% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$187 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1020d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1020d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $500 $339 −$161 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 12 $150 +$75 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $100 −$100 -100%
[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidenti Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $381 +$224 +59%
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Jul 25 $160 +$30 +19%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 25 $100 +$100 +100%
Indonesia Election: Prabowo Subianto wins? May 08 $310 −$138 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.93 · official $368.51 · 19 history records