Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4216…e922
politics · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage103d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 0 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $92 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% $0
other 38% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 15h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 15d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 21d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $92 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 26d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $93 56d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $94 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $94 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $94 61d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 69d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $94 73d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 74d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 74d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 80d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 81d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 86d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 87d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 89d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $94 91d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $94 91d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 93d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 95d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 96d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records