Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x4215…f03a sports 534 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70,203 (+120%) realized +$70,308 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%219W / 264L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$423est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$22,271
other 34% +$10,762
crypto 5% +$1,071
politics 4% −$29
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -58.8% -62.7% 21% 17% -82.8%
≤30d 92 -38.8% -44.6% 27% 24% -3.4%
≤90d 400 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 33% +21.8%
all 483 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 43% +46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% +46.6%
10% -21.6% 40% +32.5%
15% -29.2% 35% +19.7%
20% -36.1% 30% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$80 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,796
Realized+$70,308
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses219 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions50
Markets (closed)483 / 534
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $936 $941 +$4 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $707 $623 −$84 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $127 $110 −$17 (-13%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 73¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+115%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+93%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 37¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 32¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $515 −$515 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 28 $316 −$316 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $420 −$420 -100%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $7 +$11 +144%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1 +$4 +317%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $8 +$10 +122%
Will Qatar reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $8 +$14 +166%
Will Panama reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $28 +$6 +21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $19 +$5 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $64 −$12 -18%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $40 +$53 +131%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 +$15 +18%
Will Jordan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $961 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $637 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $21 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,795.72 · official $1,795.72 (match) · 3500 history records