Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4214…4245 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,222 (-16%) realized −$2,174 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%104W / 66L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$155
14 days−$105
30 days−$2,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,531
other 41% −$966
crypto 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.6% +3.7% 75% 69% -3.3%
≤30d 149 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 58% -27.3%
≤90d 170 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 59% -25.7%
all 170 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 59% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 59% -25.7%
10% -20.1% 47% -32.9%
15% -27.8% 36% -39.3%
20% -34.9% 26% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$75 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2,174
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses104 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage32d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 45¢ 46¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 73¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $29 +$15 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$68 +67%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $306 −$302 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $71 −$70 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $262 +$115 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $213 +$50 +23%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $90 −$76 -85%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $230 +$59 +26%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $174 +$56 +32%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $130 +$44 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $152 −$24 -16%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $145 +$9 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $128 +$17 +13%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $70 +$58 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $49 +$21 +42%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $42 −$42 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $36 +$6 +17%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $18 +$18 +101%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $132 −$118 -90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $143 −$7 -5%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$68 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$31 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $321 +$38 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $214 +$107 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $575 +$118 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $599 −$593 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $582 +$45 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $494 +$88 +18%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 +$2 +7%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$7 -64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 −$54 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$151 -75%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $335 −$331 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $164 −$157 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $997 −$835 -84%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $403 −$362 -90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $49 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $29 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 46¢ $102 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $101 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $306 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $71 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $377 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $262 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $262 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $213 2d
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros $14 2d
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $90 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $289 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $230 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 75¢ $174 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $174 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $130 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Tunisia 41¢ $128 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 47¢ $152 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $145 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $145 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $128 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $70 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $49 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $42 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 93¢ $42 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $36 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.52 · official $44.52 (match) · 340 history records