Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4214…6c68 world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,790 (+17%) realized +$3,775 · open −$985
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day85.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days−$213
14 days+$3,212
30 days+$3,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$3,107
finance 4% −$99
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+78.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +45.3% +31.5% 52% 44% -12.4%
≤30d 63 +97.7% +78.8% 48% 40% +29.4%
≤90d 63 +97.7% +78.8% 48% 40% +29.4%
all 63 +97.7% +78.8% 48% 40% +29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.8% 40% +29.4%
10% ← realistic here +61.7% 30% +17.0%
15% +46.1% 24% +5.7%
20% +31.8% 22% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +165% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$62 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,124
Realized+$3,775
Unrealized−$985
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)63 / 80
History coverage26d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day85.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $555 $338 −$217 (-39%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 36¢ 81¢ $94 $211 +$117 (+125%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $144 $181 +$38 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $101 $118 +$16 (+16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 47¢ $144 $107 −$37 (-26%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $299 $54 −$245 (-82%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+18%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 38¢ 87¢ $6 $13 +$8 (+130%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $145 $3 −$142 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $85 $2 −$83 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $120 $2 −$118 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $137 $2 −$135 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $171 $1 −$170 (-99%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $330 +$640 +194%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$152 +427%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $314 −$97 -31%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $452 +$4 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$18 +68%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $77 −$49 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $549 −$51 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $311 −$27 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $313 −$70 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 13 $59 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $146 −$15 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $632 −$276 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $24 −$1 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $554 −$472 -85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $1,466 −$120 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $37 +$41 +110%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$34 +104%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$47 +187%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $28 +$22 +78%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $155 −$108 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 09 $112 +$34 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $117 −$5 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $23 −$5 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $115 −$12 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $85 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $47 +$6 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $90 −$12 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $144 +$49 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,011 +$161 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $326 +$3,980 +1223%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $253 −$9 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 06 $39 −$4 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $24 −$7 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $302 +$4 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $86 +$5 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 04 $4 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 03 $15 +$4 +24%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $105 −$32 -30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $608 −$604 -99%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$26 +64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $15 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 40m
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $16 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 4h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 4h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 7h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $52 9h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 10h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 11h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 12h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $13 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $115 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.95 · official $1,134.24 (match) · 2208 history records