Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4212…26cd crypto 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$23
14 days+$21
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$31
crypto 40% −$36
sports 7% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 52% +3.6%
≤30d 217 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 45% -12.6%
≤90d 217 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 45% -12.6%
all 217 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 45% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 45% -12.6%
10% -21.2% 39% -20.9%
15% -28.8% 35% -28.6%
20% -35.8% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)217 / 225
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$11 +21%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$21 +57%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +19%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -88%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 +$3 +275%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 +$2 +172%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 +$2 +151%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +39%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +226%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -72%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 6h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 6h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 39¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.33 · official $215.72 (match) · 392 history records