Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4210…4036
crypto · 243 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$138 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$138 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses140 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage21d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 243 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 21¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+376%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Alexander Donski 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Qinwen Zheng 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos LG Twins 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Kamil Majchrzak 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Connecticut Sun 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 58¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Ilkley: Ugo Blanchet vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 08 $3 +$2 +62%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$110
sports 2% −$29
world 1% +$1
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +12.2% +1.6% 54% 31% -16.9%
≤30d 243 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 243 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 33% -15.3%
all 243 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 33% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 23% -23.4%
15% -26.9% 16% -30.8%
20% -34.1% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records