Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x420f…3a37 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$112 (-30%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.2% -37.7% 38% 31% -40.6%
≤30d 13 -31.2% -37.7% 38% 31% -40.6%
≤90d 13 -31.2% -37.7% 38% 31% -40.6%
all 13 -31.2% -37.7% 38% 31% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 31% -40.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 15% -46.3%
15% -49.1% 8% -51.5%
20% -54.1% 8% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$7 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$24 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$5 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$20 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$40 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$21 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$50 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $13 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $13 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $13 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $50 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $27 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $24 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $54 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $48 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records