Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x420c…1f36 weather 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$269 (-3%) realized −$272 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%182W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$89
14 days−$29
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$98
crypto 9% −$76
other 2% −$158
politics 1% −$46
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 28% -10.4%
≤30d 93 -19.1% -26.8% 30% 30% -7.4%
≤90d 251 -8.8% -17.5% 34% 33% -7.7%
all 415 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 37% -12.3%
10% -18.6% 30% -20.7%
15% -26.5% 25% -28.3%
20% -33.7% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses182 / 233
Open positions3
Markets (closed)415 / 418
History coverage135d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 34¢ 49¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 −$78 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$58 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 +$66 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $48 −$40 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 −$22 -77%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$53 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$40 +115%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $51 +$59 +115%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 −$5 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $64 −$62 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $66 +$84 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$13 +574%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $13 −$7 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $28 +$32 +112%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $20 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $51 +$74 +143%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $67 −$65 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $72 +$64 +89%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$31 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $50 +$107 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $36 +$53 +147%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $51 −$44 -85%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$33 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $145 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $82 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 95¢ $121 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 1975 history records