Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x420b…43da
sports · 199 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$61 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses87 / 93
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions19
Markets (closed)180 / 199
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 19 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$41
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 61¢ 57¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 61¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 54¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 53¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+84%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Under 56¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 56¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$1 +90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $7 −$5 -69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $13 −$11 -84%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$7 -44%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$42
other 18% −$2
crypto 8% −$21
politics 6% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $2 27m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $2 57m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $2 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $1 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $2 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $2 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $2 11h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $2 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $1 13h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $3 14h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $2 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $4 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $5 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $3 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 43% -13.3%
≤30d 180 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 43% -13.1%
≤90d 180 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 43% -13.1%
all 180 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 43% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -21.4%
15% -29.3% 26% -29.0%
20% -36.3% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.50 · official $50.47 (match) · 458 history records