Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x420b…8d66 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$130 (-6%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$60
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$78
sports 35% −$47
world 7% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.7% -2.5% 86% 79% -6.0%
≤30d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 60% -13.8%
≤90d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 60% -13.8%
all 20 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 60% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 60% -13.8%
10% -17.4% 10% -22.1%
15% -25.4% 5% -29.6%
20% -32.7% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$53 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $110 +$20 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $99 +$12 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $85 +$13 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $134 −$120 -90%
Set Handicap: Aboian/Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Casanova/Taverna (+1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$5 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $171 +$20 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $162 +$19 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $145 +$17 +12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $128 +$17 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $113 +$15 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 +$10 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 18 $72 +$20 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$193 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $177 +$17 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$17 +10%
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $106 −$4 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $39 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $130 5m
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $110 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $110 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 89¢ $99 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $85 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 79¢ $124 14h
Set Handicap: Aboian/Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Casanova/Taverna (+1.5) BUY Casanova/Taverna 51¢ $10 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $204 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cash/Glasspool 74¢ $13 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $191 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $171 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 57¢ $10 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $181 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $162 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $145 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $128 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 88¢ $113 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $17 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $92 4d
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $92 5d
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl BUY NAVI Junior 78¢ $72 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $194 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $177 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $160 9d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 51¢ $106 9d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $39 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records