Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4209…b161 crypto 1304 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,656 (-27%) realized −$3,656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%418W / 886L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$350
14 days−$741
30 days−$1,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$1,448
other 16% −$402
world 1% −$94
sports 0% −$20
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -75.7% -78.0% 5% 4% -47.9%
≤30d 315 -43.1% -48.5% 12% 11% -40.0%
≤90d 1304 -14.3% -22.5% 32% 28% -22.8%
all 1304 -14.3% -22.5% 32% 28% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 28% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 27% -30.2%
15% -36.7% 26% -36.9%
20% -42.9% 25% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses418 / 886
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1304 / 1304
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1304 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Spain? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 −$10 -23%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 −$17 -34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 +$6 +20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 0 Netherlands? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $2 +$13 +590%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $6 +$44 +733%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $14 +$86 +596%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $34 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $37 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $53 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $57 47h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records