Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4208…e9ea sports 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-13%) realized −$213 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%85W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$109
other 37% −$97
world 8% −$36
culture 1% +$7
crypto 1% −$12
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +14.6% +3.7% 19% 19% +12.8%
≤30d 73 -12.5% -20.8% 16% 16% -13.3%
≤90d 455 -35.3% -41.4% 15% 15% -30.5%
all 479 -25.2% -32.3% 18% 18% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 18% -20.4%
10% -38.8% 17% -28.0%
15% -44.7% 17% -35.0%
20% -50.1% 17% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses85 / 394
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions45
Markets (closed)479 / 524
History coverage152d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals Yes 2¢ 14¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+555%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 21¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+442%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists Yes 9¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Pedri: 2+ assists Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Rodri: 2+ assists Yes 7¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-67%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$15 +474%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$15 +712%
Willian Pacho: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Guela Doué: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +259%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +437%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$7 +712%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Albania leading at halftime? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel leading at halftime? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $2 +$12 +595%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 +$14 +340%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 −$7 -73%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedri: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $2 56m
Pau Cubarsí: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Rodri: 2+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $3 1h
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 1h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Willian Pacho: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Guela Doué: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $1 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $2 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 7¢ $2 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.34 · official $102.08 · 1107 history records