Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4208…9f55
crypto · 1634 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$511 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$511 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1142 / 492
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1634 / 1634
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1634 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 78% 57% -12.7%
≤30d 683 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 51% -23.0%
≤90d 1634 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 62% -12.3%
all 1634 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 62% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 62% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -20.7%
15% -27.0% 28% -28.3%
20% -34.2% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records