Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4208…13fe
crypto · 128 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$170 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$170 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses73 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage110d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Nets vs. Hawks Nets 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $153 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$18 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $110 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 +$38 +39%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 02 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 02 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$149
sports 24% −$21
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $20 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $15 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $174 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $32 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $117 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 61% -4.7%
≤30d 46 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 61% -4.7%
≤90d 46 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 61% -4.7%
all 128 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 49% -14.6%
10% -25.3% 30% -22.8%
15% -32.5% 17% -30.3%
20% -39.2% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records