Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4207…b81b
politics · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$113,456 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$109,420 · open −$88,064
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,616
Realized−$109,420
Unrealized−$88,064
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions71
Markets (closed)60 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7,669
Trades / day363.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 71 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107,822
7 days−$112,172
14 days−$109,420
30 days−$109,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 72¢ $182 $659 +$477 (+262%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $515 $518 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 94¢ $378 $377 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 95¢ $158 $160 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? No 50¢ 55¢ $61 $67 +$6 (+9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 12¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,971 $48 −$1,923 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Juan Manuel Galán place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidenti Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Vicky Dávila place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Quintero place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 12 $224 −$344 -153%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will David Luna Sánchez place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colo Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gustavo Bolívar place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $458 −$3,246 -709%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Roy Barreras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $11 −$336 -3151%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Jun 12 $458 −$3,246 -709%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $24 −$12 -50%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 12 $3,999 −$2,786 -70%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 12 $3,584 −$3,533 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $12,174 −$6,721 -55%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $85 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $33 +$12 +37%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2,489 −$1,120 -45%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $267,128 −$87,490 -33%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 11 $668 +$4,403 +659%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 11 $696 −$55 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2,624 +$859 +33%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$17 +79%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $73 +$18 +25%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $317 +$59 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% −$97,081
other 18% −$85,324
economics 6% −$3,789
sports 0% +$37
finance 0% +$53
world 0% −$2
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $5 0m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $48 4m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $51 35m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 55m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $0 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $382 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $84 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $130 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $645 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $1,500 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $750 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $371 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $127 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $127 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $125 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $3 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -54.9% -59.2% 18% 13% -40.8%
≤30d 60 -26.1% -33.2% 23% 17% -39.9%
≤90d 60 -26.1% -33.2% 23% 17% -39.9%
all 60 -26.1% -33.2% 23% 17% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover363.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 17% -39.9%
10% -39.6% 15% -45.6%
15% ← realistic here -45.4% 10% -50.9%
20% -50.8% 7% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,615.73 · official $3,615.48 (match) · 3500 history records