Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4204…165a
crypto · 639 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$259 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$115 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses382 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)638 / 639
History coverage76d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 638 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$812
7 days+$1,022
14 days+$882
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 82¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? No 83¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? No 84¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? No 73¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? No 72¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? No 92¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? No 80¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? No 86¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 21? No 82¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 3? No 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $249 $0 −$249 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1,047 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $133 +$162 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $224 +$103 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $650 +$1,208 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $517 −$250 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $246 −$239 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $142 +$37 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$26 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $97 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$4 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $31 +$21 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $55 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $38 +$26 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$15 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $35 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $96 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 −$47 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $53 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $99 +$22 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $82 +$39 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% +$273
weather 18% +$27
sports 6% −$166
other 5% +$19
economics 1% −$17
world 0% +$16
politics 0% −$35
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $175 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $224 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $114 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $319 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $396 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 95¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 87¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $295 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 86¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 84¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 85¢ $259 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 80¢ $245 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 79¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 75¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 68¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 31¢ $163 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 60% +9.2%
≤30d 595 -7.1% -15.9% 59% 51% -9.4%
≤90d 638 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -9.2%
all 638 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 50% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 32% -17.9%
15% -30.2% 18% -25.8%
20% -37.1% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.85 · official $15.85 (match) · 2861 history records