Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4202…668e
crypto · 358 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$92 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses191 / 167
Open positions0
Markets (closed)358 / 358
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 358 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$67
14 days−$43
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$5 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$5 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.3% -17.9% 56% 56% -38.0%
≤30d 285 -9.2% -17.8% 49% 48% -22.7%
≤90d 358 -7.9% -16.6% 53% 53% -21.0%
all 358 -7.9% -16.6% 53% 53% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 53% -21.0%
10% -24.6% 48% -28.6%
15% -31.9% 41% -35.5%
20% -38.6% 32% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 562 history records