Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41fd…e804
crypto · 23 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -27.7% -34.5% 35% 35% -32.5%
≤30d 23 -27.7% -34.5% 35% 35% -32.5%
≤90d 23 -27.7% -34.5% 35% 35% -32.5%
all 23 -27.7% -34.5% 35% 35% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 35% -32.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 35% -39.0%
15% -46.5% 35% -44.9%
20% -51.8% 22% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records