Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x41f9…7ed9 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$66 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$11
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$87
sports 2% +$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 19 -3.3% -12.5% 63% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 64 +19.6% +8.2% 59% 25% -7.7%
all 137 +9.9% -0.6% 53% 28% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 28% -10.5%
10% -10.1% 15% -19.1%
15% -18.8% 12% -26.9%
20% -26.7% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage132d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 93¢ 63¢ $77 $53 −$25 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $242 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 25 $65 −$14 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $104 +$15 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $18 −$5 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $134 +$16 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 10 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 05 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $68 +$60 +88%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 01 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 30 $0 $0 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $47 +$5 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $69 −$62 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $78 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $76 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $76 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $76 25h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $76 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $74 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $76 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $67 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $78 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $75 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $76 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $76 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $75 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $47 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $28 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $76 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $5 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $75 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.62 · official $52.63 (match) · 506 history records