Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41f7…9bf9 sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,943 (+5%) realized +$1,882 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 72L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$667est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days−$1,250
14 days−$859
30 days+$1,785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,538
other 1% +$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.6% -27.3% 40% 40% -33.8%
≤30d 153 +0.4% -9.1% 53% 52% -4.6%
≤90d 153 +0.4% -9.1% 53% 52% -4.6%
all 153 +0.4% -9.1% 53% 52% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 52% -4.6%
10% -17.8% 50% -13.7%
15% -25.8% 47% -22.1%
20% -33.0% 41% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$177 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$1,882
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$667
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage26d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 47¢ 76¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $99 +$146 +148%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $466 −$459 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$99 +98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $305 −$235 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $172 −$170 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $406 +$376 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $403 +$139 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 +$190 +125%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $404 +$201 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $506 +$314 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $255 −$125 -49%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $265 +$354 +134%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $307 −$246 -80%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $711 +$220 +31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 +$141 +69%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $498 +$271 +54%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $356 −$150 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $304 −$37 -12%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $102 +$214 +210%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $153 +$98 +64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $112 −$38 -34%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $203 +$207 +102%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $507 +$351 +69%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $808 +$507 +63%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $947 −$291 -31%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $204 +$174 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $354 +$90 +26%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $408 −$117 -29%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,618 +$785 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $99 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $304 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $305 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 51¢ $466 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 11¢ $70 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $305 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $102 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $172 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $406 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $103 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 86¢ $543 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $403 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 30¢ $163 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $153 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $305 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $605 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $203 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $203 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 66¢ $404 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $102 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $203 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 61¢ $506 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 67¢ $202 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 15¢ $131 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 28¢ $255 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL paiN 100¢ $618 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.64 · official $195.74 · 315 history records