Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41f7…a524 other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$663 (-17%) realized −$669 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$689
14 days−$644
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$651
politics 29% +$28
crypto 24% −$49
sports 9% +$1
economics 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -43.6% -48.9% 23% 23% -54.6%
≤30d 61 -38.5% -44.4% 25% 25% -49.7%
≤90d 61 -38.5% -44.4% 25% 25% -49.7%
all 86 -28.7% -35.5% 34% 21% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 21% -25.2%
10% -41.6% 20% -32.4%
15% -47.3% 15% -38.9%
20% -52.4% 13% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$669
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage238d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 60¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 40¢ 62¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+54%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 +$18 +344%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +25%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$7 -43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$25 -82%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $86 +$29 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$46 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$22 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$66 +213%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$7 +22%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$37 +712%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 40¢ $15 17m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 28m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $76 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 22¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $86 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.65 · official $101.65 (match) · 147 history records