Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41f6…828e
weather · 332 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,778 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,323 · open +$397
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$757
Realized+$7,323
Unrealized+$397
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses116 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)336 / 332
History coverage14d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day239.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 20 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,703
7 days+$1,779
14 days+$5,572
30 days+$7,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $24 $295 +$270 (+1111%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $13 $108 +$95 (+738%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? No 52¢ 100¢ $44 $85 +$41 (+92%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? No 44¢ 56¢ $59 $75 +$16 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? No 28¢ 100¢ $13 $46 +$33 (+257%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 56¢ $18 $31 +$13 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $13 $20 +$6 (+48%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$7 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 9? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma Jun 12 $21 −$28 -133%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 29? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 28? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 29? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 12 $27 −$28 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 28? Jun 12 $3 −$5 -149%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 28? Jun 12 $7 −$10 -145%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 +$86 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$134 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$69 +130%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $209 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$41 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2,024 +$1,043 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $123 +$248 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$66 +316%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$61 +246%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $453 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $419 −$33 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$59 +84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 −$49 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $186 +$224 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$8 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$16 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$34 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$7,926
crypto 2% +$262
other 2% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $24 2m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $20 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +25.9% +13.9% 38% 28% +0.3%
≤30d 336 +25.7% +13.7% 35% 27% +11.3%
≤90d 336 +25.7% +13.7% 35% 27% +11.3%
all 336 +25.7% +13.7% 35% 27% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover239.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.7% 27% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here +2.8% 24% +0.6%
15% -7.1% 22% -9.1%
20% -16.2% 21% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.99 · official $756.99 (match) · 3500 history records