Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41f4…ee16
crypto · 919 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,104 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,919 · open −$185
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$4,919
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses448 / 604
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1052 / 919
History coverage17d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day180.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1052 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,224
7 days−$5,635
14 days−$5,456
30 days−$4,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 75¢ 91¢ $43 $52 +$9 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 23¢ 9¢ $7 $3 −$5 (-61%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 48¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 39¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 38¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $471 −$472 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -106%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% +$2,220
sports 44% −$1,607
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 0m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $8 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 15m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $19 26m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $24 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 28m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $21 28m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $32 29m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $31 50m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $32 50m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $9 50m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $4 54m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $5 57m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 58m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $9 59m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 56¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 628 -44.8% -50.0% 29% 27% -46.1%
≤30d 1052 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 41% -28.7%
≤90d 1052 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 41% -28.7%
all 1052 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 41% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover180.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 41% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 39% -35.5%
15% -39.0% 35% -41.8%
20% -45.0% 25% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.76 · official $54.76 (match) · 3500 history records