Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41f3…844e finance 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,706 (+10%) realized +$11,894 · open +$812
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%162W / 125L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day56.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$1,825
14 days+$906
30 days+$5,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 73% +$4,307
other 26% +$4,947
world 1% +$48
politics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 47% +2.4%
≤30d 169 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 36% -2.4%
≤90d 287 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 34% -2.7%
all 287 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 34% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 34% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 22% -12.0%
15% -23.5% 12% -20.5%
20% -31.0% 9% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$69 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$5,995
Realized+$11,894
Unrealized+$812
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses162 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)287 / 301
History coverage46d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 69¢ 86¢ $1,300 $1,636 +$335 (+26%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 56¢ 60¢ $1,250 $1,324 +$75 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 66¢ 88¢ $390 $523 +$133 (+34%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 83¢ 94¢ $373 $424 +$52 (+14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $402 $422 +$20 (+5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $227 $338 +$111 (+49%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? No 56¢ 59¢ $272 $288 +$16 (+6%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $180 $264 +$84 (+46%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $177 $201 +$24 (+14%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? No 87¢ 96¢ $174 $191 +$17 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $111 $179 +$69 (+62%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 70¢ 87¢ $79 $99 +$20 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $224 $95 −$129 (-58%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Up 13¢ 6¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 14 $488 +$132 +27%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 13 $373 +$37 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $600 +$176 +29%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 12 $191 +$46 +24%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 12 $448 +$16 +4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 12 $264 +$16 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $261 −$27 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 12 $39 +$7 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$100 +375%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $969 +$181 +19%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 11 $37 +$42 +115%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 11 $201 −$11 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $517 +$29 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $639 +$163 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $916 +$136 +15%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $264 +$53 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $43 +$15 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $317 −$71 -22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $745 +$92 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $284 +$15 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $773 +$135 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $835 +$237 +28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 09 $67 +$9 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,034 +$543 +52%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 09 $892 +$468 +52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $106 −$12 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $659 +$181 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $103 −$16 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $140 −$5 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $113 +$6 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $276 −$10 -4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $328 −$86 -26%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $42 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 07 $815 −$547 -67%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 06 $281 +$178 +63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 5? Jun 05 $828 +$124 +15%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Jun 05 $38 −$10 -25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $103 −$26 -25%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,349 +$36 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 04 $119 −$71 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $80 52m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $9 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $22 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1,175 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 95¢ $190 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 95¢ $15 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 95¢ $3 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 13¢ $2 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 13¢ $8 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 13¢ $2 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $31 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $44 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $44 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $44 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $12 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 13¢ $3 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 13¢ $10 4h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $0 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $112 5h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY No 58¢ $12 5h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY No 55¢ $265 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,994.63 · official $5,994.73 (match) · 2785 history records