Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41f3…64b3 weather 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%183W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$22
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 138 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 189 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.61 per $1 lost it wins $16.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses183 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage128d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on June 7? Jun 08 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27? May 28 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 20? May 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 17? May 17 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 15? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $185 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $97 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $190 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $198 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $190 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $188 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $18 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $192 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $97 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $93 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $112 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $183 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $189 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $187 15d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $202 16d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $189 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $187 17d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $69 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $183 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or below on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $180 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.49 · official $185.49 (match) · 419 history records